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밀레니엄프로젝트 즉 유엔미래포럼본부는 적십자사와 합동으로 [코로나19 보고서] 시나리오1,2,3을 정리했다. 2021년 1월에 발표될 이 리포트에서는 상중하로 시나리오를 써서 우리가 가장 잘 대했을때 나타나는 결과 등을 풀어본다.

운영자 | 기사입력 2020/09/23 [10:49]

밀레니엄프로젝트 즉 유엔미래포럼본부는 적십자사와 합동으로 [코로나19 보고서] 시나리오1,2,3을 정리했다. 2021년 1월에 발표될 이 리포트에서는 상중하로 시나리오를 써서 우리가 가장 잘 대했을때 나타나는 결과 등을 풀어본다.

운영자 | 입력 : 2020/09/23 [10:49]

 

 

코로나19보고서를 밀레니엄프로젝트(유엔미래포럼본부)와  적십자가 유엔미래포럼의 66개국 지부들의 네트워크와 전세계 코로나19 전문가, 병원의 의사 간호사들을 총동원하여 분석, 보고서를 작성하고 있다. 이 보고서는 시나리오1, 2, 3으로 분류되어 현재 우리의 조치나 정책결정이 상중하로 분석되고, 가장 잘 대처되었을 경우 시나리오 3의 결과가 나롤 것이라고 예측하는 보고서 이다. 이 보고서는 내년 초에 나올 예정이다.

 

아래는 시나리오 별 draft이며 완결본은 유엔미래포럼 모든 지부가 다 읽고 전문가들의 동의하에 보도될 예정이다.

 

시나리오1 draft

CovidScenario 1 draft. Edits have been integrated. The updated draft isattached and available for download at:http://www.millennium-project.org/draft-9-12-20-covid-scenario-1-america-endures/if you would like to review it, please sendimprovement, edits,before28 September, 2020.  Please delete the previous draft.

 

시나리오 2 draft

The draft baseline COVID Scenario:2 Hubris and Apathy by Ted(negative possible)is available for your review at:http://www.millennium-project.org/draft-9-14-20-covid-scenario-2-hubris-and-apathy/

 

시나리오3 draft

The draft plausible positive COVID Scenario 3: Things Went Right! Is available for your review.  You can download the scenario at:
http://www.millennium-project.org/draft-9-22-2020-covid-scenario-3-things-went-right/

 

 

 

-------------------

 

 

 

The Millennium Project is writing US Covid Scenarios with the American Red Cross.These are ten-page rich with detailsscenariosfrom now toJanuary 2022. The first two draft scenarios are available for external review and feedback for improvements: The third will be ready in a few days.

 

Scenario 1: America Endures ?this is the base line or mixed good and bad scenario

 

Scenario 2: Hubris and Apathy ?this describes the worst plausible scenario

 

Scenario 3: Things Went Right! ?this describes the best plausible scenario

If you would like to reviewdraft Scenario 1 and/or 2tomake suggestions for their improvement, please email medirectly at:jerome.glenn@millennium-project.org and I will send you the draft(s) you.

Please don?/font>t just relay to this email?/font> as that just causingunnecessary emails to others.

 

Jerome Glenn

The MillenniumProject

http://www.millennium-project.org/covid-19/

 

 

시나리오 2 데트 고든

 

Hi Everybody,

 

The draft baseline COVID Scenario:2Hubris and Apathyby Ted(negative possible)is available for your review at:

http://www.millennium-project.org/draft-9-14-20-covid-scenario-2-hubris-and-apathy/

click on the download button.

Please put your comments and suggestions for improvement on the PDF and email it back toTed Gordon attedjgordon@gmail.com with a copy toJerome.Glenn@Millennium-Project.org by 28 September, 2020.

Draft Scenario 1 is out  for review now, if you have not seen it, let me know or go to the link:http://www.millennium-project.org/draft-9-12-20-covid-scenario-1-america-endures/

Draft Scenario3(positive plausible) will be available a few days.

All the best,

Jerry

 

Background:

 

Because there is so much uncertainty about the Covid pandemic, the American Red Cross has asked The Millennium Project to organize this uncertainty into alternative scenarios to help their planning. Based on your feedback, each of the three scenarios will be updated and also shared with governors, mayors, others addressing the pandemic, and the general public. You as a reviewer will also receive a copy of the final scenarios included in the Covid Scenarios and State of the Pandemic Index Report.

Although these scenarios will take global change into account, these scenarios will focus on the United States. However, Millennium Project Node chairs are encouraged to work with their own national Red Cross, Red Crescent, and/or WHO representatives to create their own national scenarios and are welcome to work with the American Red Cross and The Millennium Project team as well.

The scenarios are based on extensive reviews of articles, research papers, government and WHO documents, weekly discussions with the scenario team, and five Real-Time Delphi studies: 1) US Medical/Health issues; 2) US Socio-Economic impacts; 3) International Medical/Health issues; 4) International Socio-Economic impacts; and 5) State of the Pandemic Index variables assessment.

All the best,

Jerry

 -------------------------------------

Hi Everybody,

We expect to have final drafts of the three scenarios to send to you aby October 7th.

If you are developing Covid scenarios in your own country or asked write or to talk about the future prospects for the Pandemic , you are welcome to draw on ideas from this:

Be well, and careful,

Jerry

Draft Suggestions for the

COVID Scenarios Communications Plan

The Millennium Project has organized the many uncertainties about the COVID pandemic into three richly detailed scenarios: positive, negative, and mixed. Each scenario integrates medical, health, economic, and social factors for a more coherent understanding than the current fragmented information overload.

 

Key Messages from the Scenarios:

·       Vaccines will not end the pandemic immediately.

·       The difference between the best and worst scenarios is gigantic; which is more likely will be determined over the next few months by public actions wearing masks, distancing, handwashing, and avoiding indoor crowds.

·       Most likely is that the worst is yet to come: the greatest health, financial, economic, and psychological impacts lie ahead.

 

Other key messages

·       The pandemic is making inequality worse.

·       Increase psychological support systems

·       Whole-of-nation pandemic leadership connecting national plans and local community actions has to anticipate greater support for homeless, unemployed, and food delivery

·       Provide US leadership with G-7, WHO, and international financial institutions

·       Support vaccine distribution to lower income countries otherwise it continually returns and with the potential of mutations impacting vaccine efficacy

 

Why did we do it? What are the objectives? Why do we want to communicate this?

·       The American Red Cross and others are so focused to the current crisis  that they have little time to look ahead 12  to 18 months, but futurist do.

·       Scenarios organize the uncertainties for a more coherent understanding of what is possible; and hence, what should be planned for.

·       Provide integrated pictures of Covid possibilities as-a-whole, not just economic or medical, but the whole situation, so that people can integrate new information into a whole picture

·       Stimulate other countries to do the same

 

Four Press Releases:

·       American Red Cross – one on scenarios and one on SOPI via its distribution

·       The Millennium Project – one on scenarios and one on SOPI via its distribution

 

Virtual Press Conference

·       Called by the Red Cross, invitation send from ARC to their press/media list

·       Whole scenario team, plus Sr. VP Red Cross

·       Focus on key messages

 

Videos – ideally funded and produced by Michael’s friend, but if not, then:

·       Five separate videos: Intro (1 minute); 3 – 3 minute videos for each scenario; 3 minute for SOPI, and 5-10 minute video of whole project – intro, scenarios, and SOPI

·       Added to MP’s YouTube Channel with links on ARC and MP communications

 

Webinar

·       Maybe be on others’ webinar series, rather than producing it ourselves

·       Round table of American Red Cross, Millennium Project, Academics, Gov.

 

Podcast

·       Maybe similar to the videos, but just for audio audience, but again, maybe as part of someone else podcast series: Banning to contact Babbage economist podcast and Jerry to contact Gartner podcast

 

Millennium Project Node Chairs

·       Write articles in their own countries suggesting their countries do the same

·       Put the scenarios on their websites, and some may translate them

 

Additional Distribution for Press Releases and Videos:

·       Pandemic coordinators for Mayors and Governors

·       Chief Medical Officer, DHS

·       HHS Deputy Assistant Secretary of Health for Medicine and Science

·       Social Media by Red Cross, The Millennium Project, and Scenarios Team

 

How to get the Press Releases and Scenario to key people?

·       Antony Fauci (Jerry to Fauci’s Chief of Staff)

·       Lauri Garrett (Banning direct)

·       UN Secretariat (Jerry to Pera Wells)

·       WHO (Paul and Michael to WHO/Asia and then WHO/HQ and regions)

·       Senator Dianne Feinstein (Michael and Paul)

·       Johns Hopkins university medical/health establishment (Jay)

·       Economic media (Al)

·       Fareed Zakaria

·       Presidential Debate Prep staff and media interviewers (Michael)

·       Michelle Obama

·       Nancy Pelosi

·       Oprah Winfrey

·       Editorial pages of NYT, Wash Post,

·       Bill Gates, Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg, Jeff Bezos

·       Friendly Covid bloggers?

 

The Millennium Project’s Communications Channels:

 

1. We have three email listservs:

·       MP-PC@hermese.gwu.edu for the Millennium Project’s Planning Committee composed of some key futurists, Node Chairs, and Co-chairs:

·       millproj@hermese.gwu.edu (550) for professionals who are interested and participate in MP studies plus many from the MP-PC as well.

·       american-council-unu@lists.hcs.harvard.edu (300+) MP Intern Alumni

 

2. Main website www.millennium-project.org

·       Also www.stateofthefuture.org goes to the same site

·       For general public access and gateway to everything else, which has not been updated using WordPress

·       Clicking on a specific Node on this website takes you the specific Node page in GFIS (Node chairs can edit their Node page in GIFS at anytime

 

3. Many Nodes have their own websites. MP Nodes also have their own pages at https://themp.org/nodes/ that are publically available to all without subscription or logging in.

4. The Global Futures Intelligence System https://themp.org/ is a subscription collective intelligence that has all of our content.  It is the main repository which allows for comments on everything, and everything can be updated.  This is the MP’s evolving brain. All Node chairs get free access.  All executive summaries of our reports and global challenges are freely available to all, including the Node pages.

 

5. Facebook: Main MP page https://www.facebook.com/Millennium.Project/. My own Facebook page is https://www.facebook.com/jerome.c.glenn.  Patty Rangel of the MP Arts/Media Node set up another private group for MP at https://www.facebook.com/groups/MPGlobalNodes/ that really isn’t used yet. Others are: MP Interns FB page at: https://www.facebook.com/groups/716442755168580/; Amigos de The Millennium Project https://www.facebook.com/search/top/?q=amigos%20de%20the%20millennium%20project the millennium project Korea,  the millennium project Peru 2017, the millennium project - Argentina node, the millennium project - Armenia node, Global Arts & Media Node of the Millennium Project https://www.facebook.com/globalartsandmedia/.

 

6. LinkedIn page at: https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-millennium-project  and beta version https://www.linkedin.com/company-beta/2029587/. LinkedIn group at:  https://www.linkedin.com/groups/2279944 and page at: https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-millennium-project/notifications?goback=&trk=hb_ntf_AGGREGATED_COMPANY I also have a personal page at: https://www.linkedin.com/home?trk=nav_responsive_tab_home

 

7. Twitter for MP is not too active  https://twitter.com/MillenniumProj and a previous intern set up: https://twitter.com/MPFutureFacts  I do add to my own account as some things are my personal views that should not be on MP, but can be on my account: https://twitter.com/JeromeCGlenn

 

8. Millennium Project Press room at http://millennium-project.org/press.html

 

9. Press Release service NewsWire.

10.  Mail Chip from which Newsletters and other MP Info.

 

11. YouTube Millennium Project channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC_VYU-OmDxOzlYJRUAJBVQg

 

 

-------------------------------------------

시나리오 1 제롬 글렌

 

 

Hi everybody, <<...>>

Thank you to those who have sent improvements toCovidScenario 1 draft. Edits have been integrated. The updated draft isattached and available for download at:http://www.millennium-project.org/draft-9-12-20-covid-scenario-1-america-endures/if you would like to review it, please sendimprovement, edits,before28 September, 2020.  Please delete the previous draft.

 

Draft Scenario 2 (negative plausible) will be available for review in a few days, and draft Scenario 3 (positive plausible) will be available a few days after that.

All the best,

Jerry

Background:

 

Because there is so much uncertainty about the Covid pandemic, the American Red Cross has asked The Millennium Project to organize this uncertainty into alternative scenarios to help their planning. Based on your feedback, each of the three scenarios will be updated and also shared with governors, mayors, others addressing the pandemic, and the general public. You as a reviewer will also receive a copy of the final scenarios included in the Covid Scenarios and State of the Pandemic Index Report.

Although these scenarios will take global change into account, these scenarios will focus on the United States. The scenarios are based on extensive reviews of articles, research papers, government and WHO documents, weekly discussions with the scenario team, and five Real-Time Delphi studies: 1) US Medical/Health issues; 2) US Socio-Economic impacts; 3) International Medical/Health issues; 4) International Socio-Economic impacts; and 5) State of the Pandemic Index variables assessment.

 

 

 

A Global Think Tank for a Global Future
 
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Covid Draft Scenario 3:


Things Went Right !


 
           

As a subscriber to The Millennium Project Newsletter, you are invited to review our work in progress.

The draft plausible positive COVID Scenario 3: Things Went Right! Is available for your review.  You can download the scenario at:

http://www.millennium-project.org/draft-9-22-2020-covid-scenario-3-things-went-right/
 
Please add your comments on the text and email it back to Paul Saffo paul@saffo.com and Banning Garrett banninggarrett@gmail.com with a copy to Jerome.Glenn@Millennium-Project.org Please send your comments, corrections, edits by October 2, 2020.
 
If you have not seen draft Scenarios 1 and 2 and would like to review them as well, you can download them from:
 
Scenario 1: America Endures
Scenario 2: Hubris and Apathy
 
Best regards,
 
Jerome Glenn, CEO
The Millennium Project
 
Michael Kleeman
American Red Cross

 
 

Background:
 
Because there is so much uncertainty about the Covid pandemic, the American Red Cross has asked The Millennium Project to organize this uncertainty into alternative scenarios to help their planning. Based on your feedback, each of the three scenarios will be updated and also shared with governors, mayors, others addressing the pandemic, and the general public. You as a reviewer will also receive a copy of the final scenarios included in the Covid Scenarios and State of the Pandemic Index Report.
 
Although these scenarios will take global change into account, these scenarios will focus on the United States. However, Millennium Project Node chairs are encouraged to work with their own national Red Cross, Red Crescent, and/or WHO representatives to create their own national scenarios and are welcome to work with the American Red Cross and The Millennium Project team as well.
 
The scenarios are based on extensive reviews of articles, research papers, government and WHO documents, weekly discussions with the scenario team, and five Real-Time Delphi studies: 1) US Medical/Health issues; 2) US Socio-Economic impacts; 3) International Medical/Health issues; 4) International Socio-Economic impacts; and 5) State of the Pandemic Index variables assessment.

No attributions will be made; your comments will be anonymous, unless you put your name with the comments you enter. You would be listed among the participants in this study, unless you tell us otherwise.
 
     
© 2020 The Millennium Project, All rights reserved.

To be added to The Millennium Project listserv (millproj) for professional futurists for announcements of our work email: info@Millennium-Project.org

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