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미래예측2040년은 어떤 세상일까? 환경오염으로 10억명이 사망한다. AI로봇의 세상이 된다. 인공지능이 변호사, 의사, 경찰관, 교사, 요리사, 조종사, 기자 , 공무원들을 많이 없앤다. 다. 일자리소멸, 실업증가로 기본소득이 도래한다. 암호화경제가 보안모델로 그리고 분권형 자율조직 DAO가 보편화되면서 정부의 힘이 급락한다. 퍙생교육비용이 투자기금에서 지불되고 월급에서 뗀다. 자신소유권이 붕괴하고 거대기업이 렌트로 건물 유지보수한다.

박민제 | 기사입력 2022/11/25 [10:20]

미래예측2040년은 어떤 세상일까? 환경오염으로 10억명이 사망한다. AI로봇의 세상이 된다. 인공지능이 변호사, 의사, 경찰관, 교사, 요리사, 조종사, 기자 , 공무원들을 많이 없앤다. 다. 일자리소멸, 실업증가로 기본소득이 도래한다. 암호화경제가 보안모델로 그리고 분권형 자율조직 DAO가 보편화되면서 정부의 힘이 급락한다. 퍙생교육비용이 투자기금에서 지불되고 월급에서 뗀다. 자신소유권이 붕괴하고 거대기업이 렌트로 건물 유지보수한다.

박민제 | 입력 : 2022/11/25 [10:20]

 

미래예측2040년은 어떤 세상일까? 박영숙 세계미래보고서2022저자

 

로히트 탈워 유엔미래포럼 영국지부 Fast Future가 예측한 2040을 보자. 환경오염으로 10억 명이 사망힐 수 있다. 기후변화에 관한 정부간 패널(IPCC)의 최신 보고서는 위험한 기후변화의 증가하는 위험과 잠재적 재난에 대한 깊은 우려를 나타낸다. 더 많은 산불, 홍수, 가뭄 등 전 세계적 악천후가 다가온다.

 

AI로봇의 자동화로 수많은 일자리가 대체된다. 로봇과 인공지능(AI)이 변호사, 의사, 경찰관, 교사부터 요리사, 조종사, 기자, 공무원도 일자리를 잃는다. 역사적으로 우리는 업무자동화, 특성 변화로 심지어 전문분야의 일부가 몇 년마다 소멸되는 것을 보았다. 자동화 속도는 가속화되고 전 세계적으로 AI에 대한 투자는 미화 1조 달러 이상이다. 모든 분야 일자리에서 기술이 수행되는 역할을 AI가 인간을 능가하는 것으로 나타났다.

 

일자리소멸과 인력감소, 완전히 새로운 직업이 부상한다. 건강 웰빙이 최대성장 일자리다. 기업이 인공지능(AI)을 자동화하고 인력과 비용을 줄이는 효율성을 모색함에 따라 많은 일자리가 AI로 대체된다. 실직한 은행직원, 변호사, 교수 교사, 공무원 및 생산노동자가 다른 일자리를 찾는다. 합성생물학, 3D프린팅, 자율차에 이르기까지 신흥 비즈니스는 훨씬 더 적은 수의 일자리만 필요한 고도의 자동화된 모델로 시장에 출시된다. 자율운송, 3D프린팅 건설, 주택녹색화, 정밀제조, 암호화 경제, 메타버스 비즈니스가 성장하지만 수명연장 건강웰빙이 최대 일자리를 제공한다.

 

 

실업증가와 기본소득이 도래한다. 산업혁명과 달리 AI의 부상은 많은 일자리가 영구 소멸한다. 기업들은 훨씬 더 적은 수의 고도로 숙련된 직원을 필요로 하며, 직업을 찾을 가능성이 거의 없는 영구적인 실업자들은 기본소득 보장을 받는다. 높은 영구 실업에 직면하면 기본소득은 필수가 되며, 실업자를 의미있는 방식으로 유지하면서, 의료보건비용을 줄이고, 의미있는 삶을 살게하면서 실업으로인한 폭동을 막는다.

 

암호화 경제, 시가총액 10년 내 200조 달러가 된다. 비트코인이 20091월 첫 번째 암호화폐로 출시된 이후 암호화폐 경제는 시가총액이 22천억 달러 이상으로 빠르게 성장했다. 향후 10년 동안 200조 달러에 이르게 된다. 암호화는 역사상 가장 빠른 기술 채택을 이루었고 많은 사람들은 다른 모든 금융시장이 많은 암호화경제 자산에서 사용되는 분산형, 블록체인 기반 및 암호화 보안모델을 채택한다. 건물, 주택 등은 전통적인 개개인 자산이 아니라 분할된 토큰으로 소유하는데, 한 개의 주택을 여러명이 토큰으로 분할 소유하는 등 고도로 자동화된 '분권형 자율조직'(DAO)이 보편화된다.

 

환경오염으로 무정자증, 저출산으로 미래 출산에 상당부분은 인공자궁으로 가능하게 된다. 전 세계 다양한 과학기관이 출산없이 번식한다는 목표를 추구하고 있다. 20213월 이스라엘 Weizmann Institute of Science의 과학자들은 인공자궁 내에서 수백 마리의 쥐가 성공적으로 임신했다고 보고했다. 인간에게 인공자궁이 제공되기까지는 10년 이상이 걸릴 수 있다. 임신을 통해 아이를 낳을 수 없는 상황에서 인공자궁은 큰 진전이 된다. 도덕적, 윤리적, 종교적 논쟁이 일어난다.

 

평생교육비용 투자기금에서 지불하고, 수입과 부의 일부를 대가로 지불하는 대안이 나온다. 평균수명이 150세가 되면 100년 이상 교육을 받아야하고 이 비용은 인력투자기관에서 지불하고 투자받은자의 수입 일부를 가져간다. 자동화를 통한 장기실업 증가로 교육에 대한 전 세계 투자가 현재보다 최소 10배 이상 높아진다. 자금조달 옵션 중 하나는 민간부문 및 기관, 기금이며 수익 일부에 대한 대가로 개인교육에 투자한다.

 

자산 소유권 소멸 및 임대사회가 도래한다. 2040년이 되면 인간은 무소유로 변하고 모든 것을 구독, 임대한다. 세계경제포럼 창립자인 클라우스 슈밥(Klaus Schwab)의 예측이다. 임대사회로의 전환은 소중한 자산을 팔고 자동화가 가속화되기 때문이다. 미국 투자사 Blackstone, 민간숙박시설에 투자하고, 200개 이상의 다른 금융기관이 국내 주택소유시장에 진입하여 마을전체를 인수, 임대한다. 부동산값이 수익이 낮아져서 개개인들은 소유를 원치 않고 Lloyds Bank등이 부동산을 구매, 임대하여 유지보수를 한다.

 

미래 준비, 4가지 요소는 자기관리, 자급자족, 재정적 안정, 미래기술 습득이다.

 

Foresight 2040 - An Employment Light World?

  • 발행한 날: 2021년 10월 12일
Image Stefan Keller - Pixabay

Image Stefan Keller - Pixabay

Rohit Talwar
상태 - 대기

Rohit Talwar

Futurist Virtual Keynote Speaker - Scenarios for a Post-Pandemic Future
글 211 

Our new book Aftershocks and Opportunities 2: Navigating the Next Horizon brings together 37 future thinkers from around the globe to explore the shifts, shocks, opportunities, and risks that could shape our world over the next two decades.

This 2040 Flash Foresight survey was designed to gauge the responses of our global network of future thinkers to some of the most societally challenging ideas arising in the book. Presented below are the key findings from this survey on life in 2040.

Environment - 68% agree, 21% disagree, and 11% neither agree or disagree that “By 2040 over one billion lives will be lost due to climate change and environmental degradation.” Of these, 27% agree very strongly, while only 4% disagree very strongly.

Context – The latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) presents a deeply concerning outlook on the increasing risks and potential impacts of dangerous climate change. The immediacy  of these risks has been highlighted by an increasing number of adverse weather events around the globe - from forest fires to flooding and droughts. Projections of the toll on human live are regularly being revised upwards.

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Automation – 54% agree and only 29% disagree that “By 2040 robots and artificial intelligence (AI) will be performing the majority of everyday roles in the workplace and across society - from lawyers, police officers, and teachers through to chefs, pilots, and journalists.” Of these, 8% agree very strongly, while only 3% disagree very strongly.

Context – Historically, we have seen a proportion of roles, jobs, and even sections of professions be eliminated every few years due to changes in the nature of work and automation. The pace of automation is now accelerating, and investment in AI around the globe is estimated to be over US$1 trillion. The payoff from such investments will largely be in headcount reduction in the short term – with the opening up of new markets and revenue opportunities happening in the medium to long term. In every sector and profession, the technology has been seen to outperform humans is some or all aspects of the roles undertaken.

Jobs – 74% agree and only 14% disagree that “By 2040 the fastest growing occupations will be jobs that don't exist or are starting to emerge today - such as brain and body augmentation technicians, whole of life therapists, and personal health and wellness curators.” Of these, 16% agree very strongly, while only 2% disagree very strongly.

Context – As existing sectors and businesses look to seize on the efficiencies that Artificial Intelligence (AI) automate and reduce headcounts and costs, many jobs are due to become replaced by technology.  Hence the question arises over where the displaced bank staff, lawyers, retail assistants, civil servants, and production workers will find employment. Businesses in emerging sectors from synthetic biology to 3D printed manufacturing and autonomous vehicles are all coming to market with highly automated models requiring far fewer workers for each pound or dollar of revenue generated.

In response,  many will look to work in entirely new fields and professions that are already on a growth path, or that could emerge in the next two decades. Hence, we can expect to see the growth of opportunities in fields such as autonomous transport, rapid construction, the greening of housing, atomically precise manufacturing, the crypto economy, mixed reality technosports, and in virtual metaverse businesses. However, with a growing global population, continuing advances in healthcare, and rising life expectancy, the biggest areas of growth could be in the health and wellness sector.

Unemployment – 49% agree and 38% disagree that “By 2040 over 50% of the workforce will be permanently unemployed and living on a guaranteed basic income in return for undertaking continuous personal development and performing a range of community services.” Of these, 7% agree very strongly, while only 4% disagree very strongly.

Context – The concern is that, unlike previous industrial revolutions, the rise of AI will simply eliminate many jobs permanently. At the same time, businesses in the new sectors coming through will require far fewer and more highly skilled staff. Hence the spectre increases of a growing segment of permanently unemployed people with few prospects of ever finding a job. The pandemic related furlough payments made by many nations to large numbers of the workforce have demonstrated the concept of guaranteed basic incomes. Such measures may become essential in the face of high permanent unemployment. Keeping the unemployed occupied in a meaningful manner could become a major challenge.

The Crypto Economy – 51% agree and 31% disagree that “By 2040 shares, bonds, loans, and all forms of savings and investment will become part of a global decentralised, transparent, and tokenised crypto economy.” Of these, 14% agree very strongly, while only 5% disagree very strongly.

Context – The crypto economy has grown rapidly to a market capitalisation of over US$2.2 trillion since Bitcoin was launched as the first cryptocurrency in January 2009. This is predicted to reach US$200 trillion over the next decade. Since launch, Bitcoin has been the best performing financial asset over any ten year period and crypto has seen the fastest adoption of any technology in history. Many suggest that all other financial markets could also start to adopt the decentralised, blockchain based, and cryptographically secure, models used by many crypto economy assets.

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There is also growing interest in the idea of breaking  traditional assets such as buildings, bonds, and equities down into fractionalised tokens, often valued at less than a penny or a cent. This is commonplace with crypto assets and the process is made possible by the use of highly automated ‘decentralised autonomous organisations’ (DAOs) that literally have no employees and answer only to their own code.

Citizenry – 50% of respondents disagree, 37% agree that “By 2040 our willingness to have our brains and bodies augmented and to allow full governmental access to our personal data will determine our individual rights, taxation level, access to services, and welfare payments.” Of these, 15% disagree very strongly, while only 5% agree very strongly.

Context - The field of human enhancement is evolving rapidly, with a range of interventions using physical augmentation, genetic modification. nootropic drugs, and electronic implants. A central issue is how such enhancements might influence individual performance and assessment in education and the workplace. Another concern is the extent to which governments will use the possession of such augmentations as a criteria to access key services. At the same time, there is a growing desire for governments and businesses to use more and more of our personal data. This is accompanied by a growing public debate over individual rights, and the incentives required in return for granting access to our data.

Childbirth – 67% disagree and 19% agree that “By 2040 over 25% of babies will be gestated outside the body in artificial wombs.” Of these 19% disagree very strongly, while only 5% agree very strongly.

Context - A range of science institutions around the world are pursuing the goal of reproduction without childbirth. For example, in March 2021, scientists from Israel’s Weizmann Institute of Science reported the successful gestation of hundreds of mice inside an artificial womb. Of course, it may take ten years or more for such an option to be offered to humans. Clearly, this would be a major advance for women who are unable to – or simply don’t want to – carry a child through pregnancy.   However, there is also likely to be fierce debate around the topic and the right to choose - on social, moral, ethical, and religious grounds.

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Life expectancy – 46% disagree and 41% agree that “By 2040 newborn children will have a life expectancy 150 or more due to breakthroughs in the science of life extension.” Of these, only 8% disagree very strongly, while 9% agree very strongly.

Context - The science of life extension is accelerating at a rapid pace with a range of techniques being developed to extend human lifespans by 10, 20, 50, or even 100 years. The science is progressing at a pace far faster than society’s ability to comprehend what is possible and have a meaningful discussion on what’s appropriate and desirable.

Education – 49% disagree and 30% agree that “By 2040 our education from birth to death will be paid for by investment funds that then take a proportion of each individuals’ entire lifetime incomes and wealth in return.” Of these, 14% disagree very strongly, while only 3% agree very strongly.

Context - Education is becoming a grand global challenge in the face of a growing planetary population, increasing skills mismatches in the workplace and wider labour force, and the risk of rising long term unemployment through job automation. Some estimates suggest that worldwide investment in education needs to be at least 10 times higher than today if we are to ensure children and adults alike are equipped to survive and thrive in a rapidly changing environment. One of the financing options is for the private sector and institutional funds to make a direct investment in individuals’ education in return for a share of the future returns.

Asset Ownership and the Rental Society – 43% disagree and only 16% agree that “By 2040 corporations will own the majority of homes.” Of these, 8% disagree very strongly, while only 5% agree very strongly.

Context – “By 2030, we’ll own nothing, rent everything, and be happy about it.” This is the prediction of Klaus Schwab, the Founder and Executive Chairman of the World Economic Forum. This shift to a rental society could be accelerated by the automation of jobs forcing people to sell their most valuable assets in order to survive. In the US, investment firm Blackstone is now the biggest owner of private accommodation, with over 200 other financial institutions entering the domestic home ownership market, with even entire towns being snapped up by corporations. In the UK, Lloyds Bank and retailer John Lewis are looking to purchase thousands of domestic properties. In the coming years, many other corporations are expected to see domestic property as an appreciating asset to add to their balance sheets.

Preparing for the Future. When asked what respondents should be doing to future proof their life, health, financial security, and happiness, the five most emphasised factors here were self-care, environmental considerations, self-sufficiency, financial security, and skills:

 

  • Focus on physical health and wellbeing (32%)               
  • Move to / stay in a country with strong environmental performance and commitments (14%)            
  • Learn self-sufficiency (12%)                   
  • Buy / keep hold of property (12%)                                      
  • Start retraining now for the next job or career (10%)                            

 

Respondent Data.

Gender76% Male 24% Female

Age: Under 30 (3%), 30-39 (5%), 40-49 (18%), 50-51 (30%), 60-69 (26%), 70-79 (15%), and 80+ (3%).

Geographic Split: Respondents came from 49 countries, with the most from the US (26%) and the UK (22%).

Regional Split: North America (30%), Europe - Non EU (27%), European Union (23%), Asia (9%), Oceania (4%), South America and the Caribbean (3%), Africa (2%), Central America (1%), and the Middle East (1%).

Respondents: Participants  from 35 sectors – with the largest groupings being education (16%), professional services (12%), information technology - applications, development, hardware, networking, and security (7%), research and think tanks (6%), marketing, advertising, sales, and market research (5%), and aviation, hospitality, tourism, and travel (5%).

Rohit Talwar is a global futurist, award-winning keynote speaker, author, and the CEO of Fast Future, working with leaders in global corporations, investment firms, NGOs, and governments. His primary expertise lies in helping clients understand and shape the emerging future. He has a particular focus on how we can advance business, society, and individual lives by harnessing the power of new thinking, innovation, and disruptive developments such as artificial intelligence, blockchain technology, and human enhancement. He is the lead editor and co-author of the new book Aftershocks and Opportunities 2: Navigating the Next Horizon published on September 28th, 2021.

Images:

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//cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2019/12/09/06/32/globe-4682786_960_720.jpg

//en.cryptonomist.ch/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/real-estate-1.jpg

//cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2020/07/06/02/51/unborn-5375169_960_720.jpg

 

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Rohit Talwar
상태 - 대기
Futurist Virtual Keynote Speaker - Scenarios for a Post-Pandemic Future
글 211
 
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