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[SOFI] 70개 지부를 가진 밀레니엄프로젝트(유엔미래포럼본부0 는 2030 SOFI, 2030년 미래예측의 리얼타임델파이를 실시한다. 한국인으로 2030년 미래를 예측하고 싶으면 이번 서베이에 참가하여

박영숙세계미래보고서저자 | 기사입력 2022/01/10 [10:10]

[SOFI] 70개 지부를 가진 밀레니엄프로젝트(유엔미래포럼본부0 는 2030 SOFI, 2030년 미래예측의 리얼타임델파이를 실시한다. 한국인으로 2030년 미래를 예측하고 싶으면 이번 서베이에 참가하여

박영숙세계미래보고서저자 | 입력 : 2022/01/10 [10:10]

 

70개 지부를 가진 밀레니엄프로젝트는 2030SOFI, 2030년 미래예측의 리얼타임델파이를 실시한다. 한국인으로 2030년 미래를 예측하고 싶으면 이번 서베이에 참가하여 자신의 의견을 밝히면 된다. 예를들어, 문맹률의 중요도는 어느정도인가, R&D예산은 얼마나 중요한가 중요하다면 50 정중앙에있는 바아를 오른쪽으로 더 밀어서 70으로 늘리면되고, 그 밑에 중요도는 +를 눌러서 중요도를 정하면된다.

계정이 없으면 새로운 계정으로 들어가면 되고, 자신의 이멜과 연결시켜야 링크를 클릭하여 내 계정이 맞다고 해야 인증이 된다.

 

 

Dear Millennium Project Node Chairs, Co-chairs, and other MPPC Members,

 

 

 

 

 

As announced at the MPPC meeting, we are all set to launch the Real-time Delphi for assessing the variables to be included in the 2030 State of the Future Index. Please disseminate the invitation to your networks and invite relevant experts to participate in the study. Although this is not a funded study, given its importance, we would appreciate receiving at least 5 and preferably 10 responses per Node, from a variety of experts working in different types of organizations (e.g., futurists, natural & social scientists, policymakers, S&T experts, working for government, business, academia, NGOs, UN, and independent consultants). The questionnaire will be open until 31 January, 2022.

 

 

 

 

 

The platform used is provided by the MP Polish Node (thank you!). It has some interesting features, which we suggest to be explained in the invitation you send. Following is a suggested invitation letter; please feel free to adapt it as you feel best fits your situation. If you have any questions about this RTD, contact Elizabeth Florescu elizabeth@millennium-project.org.

 

 

 

 

 

All the best,

 

 

 

 

 

Jerry

 

 

 

 

 

Text for you to use, edit as you like for inviting colleagues and other experts:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We have the pleasure to invite you to participate in The Millennium Project study assessing the indicators used to compute the 2030 State of the Future Index. 

 

 

 

 

 

The State of the Future Index (SOFI) is an assessment of the potential 10-year outlook of the future by aggregating forecasts for a set of selected indicators. The forecasts are based on 20-years of historical data and judgments about the best and worst plausible value for each of the indicators ten years from now. SOFI has been computed by The Millennium Project since the year 2000. Time-to-time the set of indicators, their plausible ten-year best and worst values, as well as their respective weight/importance in the SOFI are reassessed. 

 

 

 

 

 

This Real-time Delphi is designed to collect judgments for the next State of the Future Index. The instructions concerning the questionnaire are included below and they will be displayed at your first access to the questionnaire; after that, they can be accessed by clicking on "Survey info" under the "Help" button (upper right corner of the screen). If you have any difficulties, please contact Elizabeth Florescu elizabeth@millennium-project.org.

 

 

 

 

 

In order to access the questionnaire:

 

 

 

 

 

  • Click this link (or copy into your browser: http://server.halnyx.com/login/cace580c0e5d251fc11aac3b6d004af5)

     

  • On your first access, please use "Registration" (the link below the login box) to create an account 

     

  • You will receive an email confirming your registration and access to the questionnaire

     

  • When you first login, please use the email with which you registered, and create a password (it has to be at least 8 characters, containing a combination of upper case, lower case, and number.) You have to use these credentials each time you login, to retrieve your own answers and to see how the responses evolve.

     

  • The following Introduction and instructions will appear when you first login:

     

 

 

 

WELCOME!

 

 

 

 

Welcome to the Real-Time Delphi that collects judgments for computing the 2030 State of the Future Index (SOFI). Your judgments are invited to assess the 29 indicators that compose the 2030 SOFI. The questionnaire is open until January 31, 2022.

 

 

You do not have to complete the entire questionnaire at once; you can -- and are encouraged to -- to return as many times as you want to continue completing, or to see how the results evolve, or to change your own answers if you wish to. Also, you do not have to answer all the questions; feel free to address only those for which you have an informed opinion.

 

 

When you want to skip a question, just ignore the red message "Not all required assessments provided." and click the "Later" button or directly on the link to another question.

 

 

For each indicator, the participants are asked to provide:

 

 

- the best and worst potential value the indicator might have in 2030

 

 

- the weight the indicator should have in the SOFI 

 

 

- comments supporting their judgments, and/or about potential events that could considerably change the trajectory of the respective indicator. The "Comments" section becomes active after you enter your quantitative responses. After providing your own comment(s), you will also see the other participants' comments, which you can rate or comment on. Although you can add several comments, you can only change/edit your own comments during one minute after saving them. 

 

 

As a point of reference, a graph is provided for each indicator, showing two lines and best and worst values:

 

 

- the blue line represents the data and trajectory computed for that indicator for the 2017 SOFI ("Old data and trajectory" label)

 

 

- the best and worst values are also the old ones, used for computing the 2017 SOFI

 

 

- the red line represents the updated data for the respective indicator as it is now in the given data source ("Data" label)

 

 

The mismatches between the data lines could come from review/update of the data by the respective organizations or change of the unit of reference. The blue line after 2017 represents the trajectory computed by us and in many cases it proved very different from how the actual data evolved (the red line). 

 

 

All answers are anonymous and no attributions can be made. If you want a certain comment to be attributed to you, please indicate your name before the respective comment. All participants will be acknowledged in the List of Participants and will receive the results of the study, except if they indicate otherwise. The questionnaire and data handling are compliant with the European Union GDPR.

 

 

We are looking forward to your inputs and thank you very much for your participation.

 

 

 

 

 
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